12 May 2026
Dan Niles: be nimble – 30-50% AI crash by 2027
Legendary tech investor Dan Niles cautions investors to consider raising their cash ratings in this week’s episode of The Master Investor Podcast, just six weeks after he correctly called for a more aggressive risk-on approach at the end of March.
Dan Niles: be nimble - 30-50% AI crash by 2027
While he still thinks today is more like 1997/98 than 2000 and that the shift from chat-based AI to Agentic AI will sustain major earnings upgrades for the rest of this year, he warns that tech stocks are overbought, Iran War risks persist, and the challenges that will hit the AI trade either way by year end.
SEMIS: “So in the short term, are semis at the most overbought they’ve been since 2000 or 1995 before they had horrific corrections? Absolutely.”
IRAN WAR: “If this is going to take a lot longer for this situation at the Strait of Hormuz to get sorted out, then you’re going to see stock prices collapse to catch up with where bond yields and oil prices are. I don’t think that’s the case. But, I’m viewing things as you should be sitting with a lot of cash.”
MEGA CAP WINNER: “It’s obviously Google. They have the full stack and they’re the ones you should bet on. And unless something drastically changes, they will continue to be the winner going forward because they’ve got everything and they’ve got the massive cashflow to fund it.”
He also discusses what the shift to Agentic AI means for $NVDA (not ideal), Intel $INTC (great) and $AMD (good); why concerns over $META are NOT overdone; why $AAPL fortunes should improve; why $AMZN and $MSFT are struggling a bit short term, and why $GOOGL shines bright.
Disclaimer
Nothing in the Master Investor podcast constitutes financial advice. We're here to share ideas and opinions, but you should always seek external independent financial advice before making your own investment decisions.
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Watch the video on The Master Investor Podcast with Wilfred Frost YouTube channel.